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08.09.2009
Signs of renewed long-term decline in dollar dive
The dollar's summer doldrums gave way to a severe case of post-Labor Day blues Tuesday that could mark a resumption of a longer-term decline for the greenback. A return to fuller market participation following the low-liquidity summer vacation period saw the dollar plunge to new 2009 lows against the euro and other widely traded currencies. It also resulted in a new 12-month low for the DXY Dollar Index, a measure of the dollar's value against a basket of six currencies.
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27.08.2009
Correlations Changing In Currency Markets
Currency market correlations are breaking down as the global economy comes out of the depths of recession. The world is in a different place than it was one year ago, and this is leading traders to question strategies that emerged as a result of the financial crisis, as well as trends over the last several months. It's not yet clear what the new trend is, particularly given thin summer markets.
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17.06.2009
Rally By Dollar's Rivals Stalls Ahead Of FOMC
One week ahead of the June Federal Reserve meeting, foreign exchange markets have turned volatile on changed policy expectations for the rest of the year. Questions have arisen on whether the reasons for chasing yield - economic green shoots and stimulus policies that will lead to an inflationary environment - have a strong enough basis. As a result, the rally in pro-cyclical currencies against the dollar has stalled.
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12.03.2009
SNB Intervenes, BOJ Next?
SNB's move to buy foreign currencies to temper CHF's gain opens up the door for other central banks, namely the BOJ, to follow suit to intervene in the fx market. The JPY is widely perceived in Japan to be overvalued. Besides, with the SNB joining the BOE, Fed, BOJ and BOC in the quantitative easing camp, it puts further pressure on the ECB to join in. With ECB officials sounding increasingly dovish lately, it suggests that ECB President Trichet may soon throw in the towel and agree to further rate cuts and quantitative easing. The main beneficiary of this will unequivocally be the USD.
12.03.2009
Euro Rallies As Stocks Near 3 Days Of Gains
The euro rallied against the dollar and yen late in Thursday's trading session as U.S. stocks appeared close to scoring gains for the third consecutive day.
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10.03.2009
Currency markets are still infused with eastern promise
China's exports may still be tumbling and data later this week may well show industrial production contracting even more, but there is still hope that the country will provide some help for the global economy.
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17.02.2009
The yen will remain on top
The yen is still the safest bet of all the major currencies, despite Tuesday's reaction to news that Finance Minister Shoichi Nakagawa is resigning.
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30.01.2009
The dollar will continue to attract support
Dollar bulls should remain confident. U.S. data may still be indicating an economic deterioration and worries about the efficacy of official measures to stop the rot may remain paramount.
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28.01.2009
Euro money market: overnight rates largely unchanged
Euro zone overnight money market rates Wednesday are quoted largely unchanged between 0.95% and 1.10% from 0.95% and 1.05% Tuesday.
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27.01.2009
Dollar Set To Get Hit Back In The Near Term
A likely slew of disappointing U.S. economic news this week, concern over quantitative easing, a more volatile U.S. relationship with China, as well as signs of long dollar speculative positions are all contributing to this negative view.
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01.11.2001
Trade Balance, Current Account and Capital Flows: Balance of Payments Accounts
We consider here three international indicators: international trade and payments, exchange rates, and foreign and domestic interest rates.
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01.11.2001
Interest Rates and Exchange Rates
We also see substantial differences in interest rates across countries. In late January of 1992, for example, the rate on three-month eurodollars at Bankers Trust was 4.19% (annual rate).
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01.11.2001
Inputs and Outputs: The Production Function
The central feature of any economy is that economic agents take factor inputs - labor, capital, and raw materials and convert them into useful products. Not quite alchemy, but useful nonetheless.
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01.11.2001
The Mystery of the Vanishing Productivity Growth in the 1990s and Its Post-1995 Resurgence
The data for the 1990s have led to a new productivity puzzle. Until the end of 1995 (when the fixed-weight system was being used to measure GDP and productivity) it appeared that there was a major resurgence of productivity in the 1990s:
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01.11.2001
The Quantity Theory of Money
We're going to start here with some pure reasoning that goes back a few hundred years. Like a lot of good theory, it's based on an analogy.
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01.11.2001
Interest Rates and Inflation
The question is what our theory tells us about the relation to be between inflation and nominal interest rates.
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01.11.2001
Application: Big Inflations
In the US there is debate about the best policy, but in some countries there is little doubt that a constant growth rate rule is better than what they have. In the last decade, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, and Israel have experienced very large inflation rates, all over one hundred percent a year and some over a thousand. We can confidently expect several more over the next decade.
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21.10.2001
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